Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: All right, so everyone's making super bowl predictions right now, Right? We're going to look at it a little differently today.
[00:00:04] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:00:05] Speaker A: We're going to deep dive into how machine learning is being used to predict super bowl winners.
[00:00:10] Speaker B: Sounds interesting.
[00:00:11] Speaker A: And how those same concepts can be applied to sales and marketing.
[00:00:15] Speaker B: I like it.
[00:00:15] Speaker A: So we've got two articles from G2M Insights that we're going to look at.
[00:00:19] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:00:20] Speaker A: The first one's called Predicting the Super Bowl Winner with Machine Learning.
[00:00:24] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:00:24] Speaker A: And then we'll look at leveraging business analytics lessons from the NFL for business strategy.
[00:00:31] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:00:32] Speaker A: So we'll start with a fun one.
[00:00:33] Speaker B: Yeah, let's have some fun.
[00:00:34] Speaker A: So this company, G2M Insights, built this model to predict super bowl winners.
[00:00:41] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:00:42] Speaker A: And they use data going all the way back to 1992.
[00:00:47] Speaker B: Wow, that's a lot of data.
[00:00:50] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, they were really trying to see, like, what factors actually contribute to a team's super bowl chances.
[00:00:57] Speaker B: I mean, there's so many variables in football. You know, you've got the players, the coaches, injuries.
[00:01:03] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:01:03] Speaker B: The coaching, the weather, all sorts of crazy stuff.
[00:01:07] Speaker A: It seems so random sometimes.
[00:01:08] Speaker B: But that does seem random sometimes. For sure.
[00:01:10] Speaker A: They found some pretty good predictors.
[00:01:12] Speaker B: Okay, cool.
[00:01:14] Speaker A: So one of the first things they considered was wins.
[00:01:19] Speaker B: Yeah, that makes sense.
[00:01:20] Speaker A: You know, like, the more wins a team has during the regular season, obviously.
[00:01:24] Speaker B: The better their chances of even making it to the playoffs.
[00:01:28] Speaker A: Exactly.
[00:01:29] Speaker B: Let alone winning the whole thing.
[00:01:30] Speaker A: Right. So that's like an obvious one.
[00:01:32] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:01:32] Speaker A: But then they also realized, okay, like, historical data is important, too.
[00:01:36] Speaker B: Oh, yeah, for sure.
[00:01:37] Speaker A: So they incorporated data from the previous season.
[00:01:40] Speaker B: Interesting.
[00:01:41] Speaker A: Like, you know, if a team was really good last year, chances are.
[00:01:45] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:01:45] Speaker A: They might still be pretty good this year.
[00:01:47] Speaker B: Yeah. Momentum, you know.
[00:01:49] Speaker A: Exactly.
[00:01:49] Speaker B: Team chemistry, all that stuff.
[00:01:50] Speaker A: Yeah, totally.
[00:01:51] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:01:52] Speaker A: So I'm curious.
[00:01:53] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:01:53] Speaker A: What about all the other stats, though?
[00:01:55] Speaker B: Yeah, there's a ton of them in football.
[00:01:56] Speaker A: Yes. I mean, football's a game of numbers.
[00:01:58] Speaker B: It is for sure.
[00:01:59] Speaker A: Right.
[00:01:59] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:02:00] Speaker A: So they had to figure out how to use all those numbers, too.
[00:02:02] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:02:03] Speaker A: So G2M insights, okay. They looked at first downs per game.
[00:02:06] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:02:07] Speaker A: As one of the key metrics for.
[00:02:09] Speaker B: Those who don't know a lot about football. Can you explain what a first down is?
[00:02:12] Speaker A: So basically, a first down means the. The team has gained 10 yards.
[00:02:17] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:02:18] Speaker A: And then they get another set of attempts to move the ball down the field.
[00:02:21] Speaker B: Okay. So it's like a measure of offensive success.
[00:02:24] Speaker A: Exactly. Like, the more first downs you're getting, the more likely you are to Score makes sense, right?
[00:02:30] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:02:30] Speaker A: So. So they took all that.
[00:02:32] Speaker B: But here's the thing. They didn't just, like, plug all those raw numbers into their model. They standardized the data.
[00:02:40] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:02:41] Speaker B: Using something called Z scores.
[00:02:43] Speaker A: Z scores, huh? Yeah.
[00:02:44] Speaker B: Have you ever heard of that?
[00:02:45] Speaker A: I have, actually.
[00:02:46] Speaker B: Okay, so explain that to me. Yeah. So like, imagine, like, why is that so important for their model?
[00:02:53] Speaker A: So, like, imagine a team scores like 30 touchdowns in a season.
[00:02:56] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:02:56] Speaker A: And another team scores 25.
[00:02:58] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:02:59] Speaker A: So, like, at first glance, the team with 30 looks better, right?
[00:03:03] Speaker B: Yeah, of course.
[00:03:04] Speaker A: But what if, like, the average number of touchdowns that season was only 20? Then suddenly the team with 25 looks a lot better.
[00:03:10] Speaker B: Oh, interesting.
[00:03:11] Speaker A: Right.
[00:03:12] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:03:12] Speaker A: So that's where Z scores come in.
[00:03:14] Speaker B: So it's not just about the raw numbers. It's about how they compare to the average.
[00:03:18] Speaker A: Exactly.
[00:03:18] Speaker B: Gotcha.
[00:03:19] Speaker A: Yeah. It's like relative performance. Okay. That's what Z scores help us understand.
[00:03:23] Speaker B: So it's like, you know, you've got to compare apples to apples.
[00:03:26] Speaker A: Exactly.
[00:03:27] Speaker B: Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. Cool. All right, so we've crunched all this data.
[00:03:33] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:03:33] Speaker B: They've standardized everything.
[00:03:35] Speaker A: What did they find?
[00:03:36] Speaker B: What did their model actually reveal?
[00:03:38] Speaker A: What were the big predictors?
[00:03:39] Speaker B: Yeah. What were like, the top predictors of super bowl success? Success.
[00:03:43] Speaker A: I'm on the edge of my seat.
[00:03:44] Speaker B: All right, so as we might have.
[00:03:46] Speaker A: Guessed, the number of wins during the regular season was a top predictor.
[00:03:51] Speaker B: Makes sense.
[00:03:51] Speaker A: But the model also highlighted that first downs per game and key stats from the previous season.
[00:03:59] Speaker B: Interesting.
[00:04:00] Speaker A: Played significant roles as well.
[00:04:02] Speaker B: So, like, consistency and past performance.
[00:04:05] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:04:06] Speaker B: Are key.
[00:04:06] Speaker A: Totally.
[00:04:07] Speaker B: Even in a sport as unpredictable as football.
[00:04:09] Speaker A: Yeah. I mean, that's pretty amazing.
[00:04:11] Speaker B: It is pretty wild.
[00:04:12] Speaker A: It's not a crystal ball or anything.
[00:04:13] Speaker B: Right.
[00:04:14] Speaker A: But.
[00:04:14] Speaker B: But still, it's pretty cool.
[00:04:15] Speaker A: Yeah. I'm curious how accurate it was.
[00:04:17] Speaker B: Yeah. So they found that their model correctly predicted the Super bowl winner 29% of the time.
[00:04:25] Speaker A: Wow.
[00:04:26] Speaker B: Which that's actually when you think about all the randomness of the playoffs. Yeah, it's pretty good.
[00:04:32] Speaker A: It is. You know, that's impressive.
[00:04:34] Speaker B: Yeah. So it's not perfect.
[00:04:35] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:04:36] Speaker B: But it's pretty remarkable.
[00:04:37] Speaker A: Yeah, for sure.
[00:04:39] Speaker B: And it makes you think, like.
[00:04:39] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:04:40] Speaker B: Imagine if we could apply this to business.
[00:04:43] Speaker A: Right.
[00:04:44] Speaker B: Like, imagine if you could predict which.
[00:04:46] Speaker A: Leads are most likely to convert or.
[00:04:49] Speaker B: Which marketing campaigns are going to be the most successful.
[00:04:52] Speaker A: Exactly. So that's something we can explore a little bit more when we look at their second article, leveraging Business analytics.
[00:04:59] Speaker B: Okay, cool.
[00:04:59] Speaker A: But before we move on to the business side of Things.
[00:05:01] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:05:02] Speaker A: I got to ask.
[00:05:03] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:05:03] Speaker A: Did G2M insights.
[00:05:05] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:05:06] Speaker A: Make any predictions for this year's Super Bowl?
[00:05:08] Speaker B: They did.
[00:05:09] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:05:10] Speaker B: They did.
[00:05:10] Speaker A: Who are they betting on?
[00:05:12] Speaker B: I'll tell you, but first I want to hear your prediction.
[00:05:14] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:05:15] Speaker B: Based on everything we've talked about.
[00:05:16] Speaker A: Oh, that's tough.
[00:05:17] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:05:18] Speaker A: All right, so based on their emphasis on wins and historical performance and offensive efficiency, I'm going to go with.
[00:05:27] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:05:28] Speaker A: Actually, you know what? I'm going to save my prediction for later. I'm dying to hear who the model picked.
[00:05:32] Speaker B: Okay. I won't keep you in suspense any longer. Okay. So their model predicts the top contenders for Super Bowl L8 are. The Kansas City Chiefs.
[00:05:42] Speaker A: Oh, wow.
[00:05:42] Speaker B: Philadelphia Eagles.
[00:05:43] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:05:44] Speaker B: The Buffalo Bills.
[00:05:45] Speaker A: All right.
[00:05:46] Speaker B: San Francisco 49ers.
[00:05:47] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:05:48] Speaker B: And the Cincinnati Bengals.
[00:05:50] Speaker A: Wow. That's a pretty impressive lineup.
[00:05:52] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:05:53] Speaker A: A lot of familiar faces from recent playoffs.
[00:05:55] Speaker B: Yeah. A lot of those teams.
[00:05:57] Speaker A: Which makes sense.
[00:05:58] Speaker B: I've been there before.
[00:05:59] Speaker A: Right. Given their emphasis on historical performance.
[00:06:02] Speaker B: Exactly.
[00:06:02] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:06:03] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:06:03] Speaker A: I'm going to go out on a limb here.
[00:06:05] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:06:05] Speaker A: And say I think the Buffalo Bills have a real shot this year. They've been so close. Yeah.
[00:06:12] Speaker B: They've been knocking on the door the.
[00:06:14] Speaker A: Past few seasons and their offense is explosive.
[00:06:18] Speaker B: Oh, yeah. Josh Allen's a beast.
[00:06:20] Speaker A: Right.
[00:06:20] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:06:21] Speaker A: So they're definitely a strong contender.
[00:06:22] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:06:23] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:06:23] Speaker B: All right. So we've had a lot of fun talking about super bowl predictions.
[00:06:28] Speaker A: Super bowl is always fun. It's a good time.
[00:06:30] Speaker B: But let's shift gears for a minute. Minute. And think about how these data driven approaches can be applied to growing a business.
[00:06:40] Speaker A: That's the real question, right?
[00:06:41] Speaker B: Yeah, exactly.
[00:06:42] Speaker A: Like, how do we take this stuff?
[00:06:43] Speaker B: Like we were saying.
[00:06:44] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:06:45] Speaker B: If we can predict the super bowl and apply it to business, can we predict sales?
[00:06:50] Speaker A: Can we predict marketing campaigns? All that good stuff.
[00:06:53] Speaker B: So the article that we're going to look at now is called Leveraging Business Analytics Lessons from the NFL for Business Strategy.
[00:07:05] Speaker A: I like it.
[00:07:05] Speaker B: So what are some of the key takeaways?
[00:07:07] Speaker A: So one of the biggest things they talk about in this article is building a data driven culture across all teams, not just the analytics department.
[00:07:17] Speaker B: So it's not just about having a few data analysts.
[00:07:20] Speaker A: Yeah. You can't just have, like, working in a silo, a little team of data nerds off in the corner.
[00:07:27] Speaker B: Everyone needs to be involved.
[00:07:28] Speaker A: Everyone needs to buy in to the data and use it to make decisions. Yeah. Because like, in football, it's not just the coach.
[00:07:36] Speaker B: Right.
[00:07:36] Speaker A: Who's making decisions.
[00:07:37] Speaker B: Yep. The players, the coordinators you know, everyone's got to be.
[00:07:42] Speaker A: Everyone's got to be on the same page.
[00:07:43] Speaker B: On the same page. Using the data to make the best calls.
[00:07:48] Speaker A: So that's like lesson number one. That's lesson number Build the data driven culture.
[00:07:52] Speaker B: Data driven culture across the whole organization.
[00:07:55] Speaker A: Let's lesson number two.
[00:07:56] Speaker B: Lesson number two is all about finding that balance between analytics. Analytics and human expertise.
[00:08:03] Speaker A: Okay. So, yeah. You don't want to just rely on the numbers.
[00:08:06] Speaker B: Right. Data can be super valuable.
[00:08:08] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:08:08] Speaker B: But you also need, you need that.
[00:08:12] Speaker A: Human intuition, thrill of feeling the gut.
[00:08:14] Speaker B: Right.
[00:08:15] Speaker A: So it's like, it's like in football.
[00:08:16] Speaker B: In football. Yeah.
[00:08:18] Speaker A: You know, you don't want to just.
[00:08:19] Speaker B: You can't just look at the stuff.
[00:08:20] Speaker A: Rely on the analytics.
[00:08:21] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:08:22] Speaker A: To make every play call.
[00:08:24] Speaker B: You got to trust. You got to trust the coach. The coach, the quarterback's instincts.
[00:08:29] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:08:29] Speaker B: All that stuff.
[00:08:30] Speaker A: That's a good point.
[00:08:30] Speaker B: Yeah. So. So it's about finding that sweet spot.
[00:08:34] Speaker A: Finding that sweet spot where data.
[00:08:36] Speaker B: Insights.
[00:08:37] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:08:37] Speaker B: Complement.
[00:08:38] Speaker A: Complement and enhance human expertise.
[00:08:40] Speaker B: Okay, I like that.
[00:08:42] Speaker A: All right, what else?
[00:08:42] Speaker B: So lesson number three is about focusing on insights.
[00:08:47] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:08:47] Speaker B: That lead to action.
[00:08:49] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:08:49] Speaker B: And improvement.
[00:08:50] Speaker A: So it's not just about gathering data.
[00:08:52] Speaker B: You got to do something with it.
[00:08:53] Speaker A: You got to make it actionable.
[00:08:55] Speaker B: Actionable insights. That's what we're looking for.
[00:08:58] Speaker A: I like that.
[00:08:58] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:08:59] Speaker A: All right, so you've got to have a plan.
[00:09:01] Speaker B: Got to have a plan.
[00:09:02] Speaker A: You got to know.
[00:09:03] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:09:03] Speaker A: What you're going to do with the data.
[00:09:04] Speaker B: What are you going to do with.
[00:09:05] Speaker A: It before you even collect it.
[00:09:07] Speaker B: Yeah. You don't want to just be swimming in data and not knowing what to do.
[00:09:11] Speaker A: Yeah. Just drowning in.
[00:09:12] Speaker B: Drowning in data.
[00:09:13] Speaker A: Yeah. That's a good way to put it. Yeah. All right, what's the last lesson?
[00:09:16] Speaker B: All right, so lesson number four.
[00:09:18] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:09:18] Speaker B: Is all about real time analytics.
[00:09:22] Speaker A: Real time.
[00:09:23] Speaker B: Real time.
[00:09:23] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:09:24] Speaker B: So just like NFL teams use real time data.
[00:09:27] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:09:28] Speaker B: To adjust their strategies during a game.
[00:09:30] Speaker A: So like if they see something's not working right.
[00:09:32] Speaker B: They got to make adjustments.
[00:09:33] Speaker A: We got to change it up.
[00:09:34] Speaker B: Got to be agile.
[00:09:35] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:09:36] Speaker B: Businesses can benefit. So it's like from having access to up to the minute information.
[00:09:41] Speaker A: Like marketers.
[00:09:41] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:09:42] Speaker A: Who are running campaigns.
[00:09:43] Speaker B: Exactly.
[00:09:44] Speaker A: See how things are performing, what's working, what's not working. Real time.
[00:09:47] Speaker B: And make changes, adjust on the fly in real time.
[00:09:50] Speaker A: Yeah. Be responsive.
[00:09:51] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:09:52] Speaker A: To the market.
[00:09:52] Speaker B: So it's all about being. It's all about agile and adaptable.
[00:09:55] Speaker A: Agility and adaptability.
[00:09:57] Speaker B: In today's fast paced.
[00:09:59] Speaker A: Yeah. The market Moves so fast these days. You gotta be able to keep up.
[00:10:03] Speaker B: Right.
[00:10:04] Speaker A: You snooze, you lose.
[00:10:06] Speaker B: Okay. I like it.
[00:10:08] Speaker A: Yeah. So real time analytics, that's lesson number four. It's all about bringing that same level of.
[00:10:13] Speaker B: It is strategic thinking.
[00:10:15] Speaker A: Bringing that strategic thinking and data driven decision making, data driven mindset that we.
[00:10:20] Speaker B: See in the NFL to the world of business.
[00:10:23] Speaker A: It's all connected.
[00:10:24] Speaker B: Yeah. You know, it's really interesting to see how these seemingly disparate worlds of sports and business and business can actually share.
[00:10:33] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:10:34] Speaker B: Similar principles and approaches.
[00:10:36] Speaker A: It's all about.
[00:10:37] Speaker B: So it's not just about the numbers themselves.
[00:10:39] Speaker A: Not just about the numbers.
[00:10:40] Speaker B: It's about.
[00:10:41] Speaker A: It's about the insights. The insights that we get from them.
[00:10:44] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:10:45] Speaker A: And the actions that we take.
[00:10:47] Speaker B: The actions we take based on those insights.
[00:10:49] Speaker A: Based on those insights. That's key.
[00:10:52] Speaker B: Okay. So we've covered a lot of ground today from super bowl prediction. Super bowl prediction, data driven business strategies.
[00:11:01] Speaker A: Business strategy. Seems like whether you're a football coach.
[00:11:05] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:11:06] Speaker A: Or a marketing executive or a CEO, the ability to leverage data. Effectively. Leverage data can be a game changer.
[00:11:14] Speaker B: It's a game changer.
[00:11:15] Speaker A: It's not just a nice to have anymore.
[00:11:17] Speaker B: It's a must have.
[00:11:18] Speaker A: It's a must have.
[00:11:18] Speaker B: Yeah. If you want to stay competitive, you.
[00:11:21] Speaker A: Got to be using data.
[00:11:22] Speaker B: You got to be using data to make decisions, to inform your decisions.
[00:11:25] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:11:25] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:11:26] Speaker A: And I think as we continue to generate more data, more data than ever, and develop more sophisticated, more sophisticated tools, analytical tools, your future is bright.
[00:11:36] Speaker B: The possibilities for data analytics, for leveraging data.
[00:11:39] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:11:40] Speaker B: Are only going to continue to expand.
[00:11:42] Speaker A: It's an exciting time.
[00:11:43] Speaker B: Yeah. It's an exciting time to be in the data world. To be in the world of data.
[00:11:46] Speaker A: That's for sure.
[00:11:47] Speaker B: You know, as we wrap up this deep dive into machine learning and super bowl predictions, something keeps coming back to me.
[00:11:54] Speaker A: Oh, yeah? What's that?
[00:11:55] Speaker B: Those Z scores.
[00:11:57] Speaker A: Oh, yeah.
[00:11:58] Speaker B: Like, that was a pretty crucial step.
[00:12:00] Speaker A: In building their prediction model.
[00:12:02] Speaker B: It was essential.
[00:12:03] Speaker A: Why don't we explain that one more time?
[00:12:04] Speaker B: Yeah. For sure.
[00:12:05] Speaker A: For our listeners, team performance.
[00:12:07] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:12:08] Speaker A: Can fluctuate from one season to the next, right?
[00:12:10] Speaker B: Oh, totally. Some years the league is just more high scoring. Exactly. Or defenses are dominant or whatever it is.
[00:12:17] Speaker A: Yeah. So using raw data without any context.
[00:12:20] Speaker B: Right.
[00:12:21] Speaker A: Wouldn't give you an accurate picture of a team's true strength.
[00:12:25] Speaker B: So they had to standardize everything.
[00:12:27] Speaker A: Exactly.
[00:12:28] Speaker B: So instead of just looking at total number of touchdowns or yards gained, you.
[00:12:32] Speaker A: Look at how each team performed relative to the league average for that season.
[00:12:37] Speaker B: So it's all about understanding the context.
[00:12:39] Speaker A: Context is key.
[00:12:40] Speaker B: Yeah. And comparing apples to apples.
[00:12:43] Speaker A: Apples to apples.
[00:12:44] Speaker B: This makes me think about how businesses can apply that concept totally beyond just sales.
[00:12:52] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:12:53] Speaker B: You could use Z scores to compare your company's growth rate to industry benchmarks.
[00:13:01] Speaker A: Or even to your competitors.
[00:13:03] Speaker B: Absolutely. It's a great way to see where.
[00:13:05] Speaker A: You stack up, to see where you.
[00:13:06] Speaker B: Stand against the competition.
[00:13:07] Speaker A: Yeah. This has been an eye opening conversation.
[00:13:10] Speaker B: It has been fun.
[00:13:11] Speaker A: I feel like I've learned a lot.
[00:13:13] Speaker B: Me too.
[00:13:13] Speaker A: About data analytics.
[00:13:15] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:13:15] Speaker A: And how we can use these tools, powerful tools to make better decisions.
[00:13:20] Speaker B: Yeah. For sure.
[00:13:21] Speaker A: Whether it's in business or even.
[00:13:24] Speaker B: Or in life.
[00:13:24] Speaker A: Yeah. Even in life. You know, in our personal lives.
[00:13:27] Speaker B: Data is everywhere.
[00:13:28] Speaker A: So to our listeners.
[00:13:30] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:13:31] Speaker A: We hope this deep dive.
[00:13:32] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:13:33] Speaker A: Has sparked your curiosity, hopefully and inspired you to think differently. Think outside the box about the power of data.
[00:13:41] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:13:42] Speaker A: And machine learning.
[00:13:44] Speaker B: It's changing the world.
[00:13:45] Speaker A: It really is.
[00:13:46] Speaker B: As we speak.
[00:13:47] Speaker A: So keep your minds open, keep learning, and embrace the data revolution.
[00:13:52] Speaker B: The data revolution is here.
[00:13:54] Speaker A: It's already changing the game. It is both on the football field.
[00:13:57] Speaker B: On and off the field, and in the business world.
[00:13:59] Speaker A: Thanks for joining us, everyone, and happy holidays. Happy holidays.